Global Trade Outlook and Statistics - Resumen ejecutivo

Resumen ejecutivo

• Despite the conflict in the Middle East, the global economy has remained resilient, reflecting a stronger-than-expected surge in AI-related capital investment and increased supplies of fuels and fertilizers from countries outside the Middle East. As a result, WTO economists have revised their forecast for merchandise trade volume growth in 2026 up sharply to 3.9% from 1.9% in their baseline scenario forecast in March, reflecting a stronger than anticipated surge in AI-related capital investment.
• At the same time, the forecast for commercial services trade volume growth in 2026 has been revised down to 3.3% from 4.8% previously as the conflict in the Middle East has depressed travel and tourism in the region and raised fuel input costs worldwide.
• In 2027, growth rates in volume terms for merchandise and commercial services trade are expected to rise to 4.1% and 6.4%, respectively, but this outcome depends on a timely resolution of the Middle East conflict.
• Based on the above projections, the volume of world goods and services trade is expected to grow by approximately 3.7% in 2026 and 4.7% in 2027.
• The stronger-than-expected growth in merchandise trade reflects two opposing forces. On the one hand, the push from AI-related investment has increased demand for AI-enabling goods, which accounted for 47% of global merchandise trade growth in value terms in the first half of 2026. At the same time, reduced shipments of oil, natural gas and fertilizers have weighed on merchandise trade, but for the year to date the former has outweighed the latter.
• While high commodity prices may persist as a result of bottlenecks constraining flows of fuels and fertilizers, continued AI investment and the broader digitization of the global economy are expected to keep merchandise trade growth above the rate of world GDP growth in 2027.
• AI investment and the Middle East conflict are also affecting the services trade outlook, but to different degrees. AI is lifting trade in computer and financial services. However, the impact of the conflict in the Middle East is prevailing in traditional services such as transport, tourism and construction.
• Services trade growth is expected to remain below trend this year before rebounding in 2027. Asia and North America are expected to see their contributions decline, while Europe’s is expected to remain broadly stable, putting the region on track to account for more than half of export services growth this year. Meanwhile, “Rest of World” is expected to make a negative contribution, dragged down by a large contraction in the Middle East. All services sub-sectors are expected to see growth below the March baseline forecast.
• The trade forecast remains subject to several significant risks. The current wedge between crude oil and refined oil prices is weighing on trade growth by eroding households’ purchasing power. A slowdown or reversal of AI investment spending could also have a significant impact on trade given its high import content.
• Turning to trade statistics in value terms, the current US dollar value of world merchandise trade has risen considerably faster than volume in the first half of 2026, up 15% year-on-year compared to 3.5% growth in volume terms. This marks one of the largest gaps between the value and volume of trade growth in recent years, reflecting higher prices for fuels and electronic components for data centres.
• The value of world commercial services trade also continued to rise in the first half of 2026, up 14% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period in the previous year, although growth is estimated to have slowed to 10% in the second quarter.
• Trade continues to show some alignment with geopolitical considerations, although the gap between intra-bloc and inter-bloc trade has narrowed through 2025 and into 2026, suggesting that the broader pattern of bloc-based fragmentation has not continued to intensify. US China trade decoupling has, however, accelerated since 2025 and is now the main driver of the bloc divergence.
• An analytical chapter takes an in-depth look at the contribution of AI-enabling goods trade to world merchandise trade growth in value terms. Trade in AI-enabling goods used to move broadly in line with other goods until 2024 when its year-on-year growth took off, accelerating to 16% in 2024, to 31% in 2025, and finally to 67% in the first half of 2026. As a result, its share in world merchandise trade rose to 14.8% in the first half of 2026, up from 7 to 8% between 2016 and 2023.
• AI-enabling goods were responsible for nearly half of year-on-year growth in the value of world merchandise trade in the first half of 2026, although the geographical concentration of this trade is high (about twice as high as for total merchandise trade) and rising. In 2025, the top 10 traders of AI-enabling goods accounted for around 85% of world exports and 80% of world imports.

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